For
the foreseeable future, no relationship is more vital to international
stability than that between the United States and China. Yet
Donald Trump and the Chinese authorities have foolishly introduced dangerous new uncertainties into the equation.
China resolved a potential crisis on Tuesday by
returning an underwater research drone
that it had seized on Dec. 15 from a United States Navy ship in
international waters near the Philippines. Still, the episode stoked
fresh tensions and gave Mr. Trump an excuse to double down on his
campaign promise to adopt a tougher and less predictable line toward
Beijing.
Mr. Trump began this month by taking a postelection phone call
from the president of Taiwan,
Tsai Ing-wen, and a week later suggested that he might jettison the
United States’ longstanding acceptance of a “one-China” policy. It’s
unclear what Mr. Trump means by this, or if he understands the threat
that a breakdown in relations would pose for
Taiwan, an American partner, as well for broader American interests in Asia. Or maybe he understands and just doesn’t care.
Maintaining
a delicate balance on Taiwan’s status has been a foundational principle
of United States-China relations and crucial to maintaining peace in
Asia. Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade region that will eventually be
incorporated in China, by force if necessary. Since 1978, the United
States has recognized Beijing as China’s sole government, breaking
diplomatic ties with Taiwan a year later, but Washington continues to
have unofficial ties with Taiwan, sells weapons to the self-governing
island, and has hinted it may defend Taiwan if it is attacked.
Mr. Trump
told Fox News
recently that he might reconsider the one-China policy as a way to
exact Chinese concessions in disputes over currency manipulations, trade
and Beijing’s moves to claim rocks and reefs in the South China Sea. He
may think he is making an opening bid, but for China, Taiwan’s status
is nonnegotiable.
Such
talk, some experts fear, might mean that Mr. Trump would formally
recognize Taiwan or embolden Taiwan to declare independence from China,
either of which would bring swift reprisals. Alternatively, some worry
that if China offers the right deal, Mr. Trump might abandon Taiwan by
ending cooperation and billions of dollars in arms sales. Such a shift
would shake the foundations of every international alliance and
partnership the United States has spent decades building.
China,
the world’s second-largest economy, is America’s largest trading
partner, besides being a nuclear power and a veto-wielding member of the
United Nations Security Council. Heedless of these concerns, Mr. Trump
has threatened to slap 45 percent tariffs on China and start a trade war
that would penalize American consumers, who would have to pay more for
imported Chinese goods. It would also hurt American businesses that seek
to sell their products in the Chinese market. Beijing has already
thrown a punch,
warning
last week that it could place sanctions against General Motors or Ford
for monopolistic behavior, possibly as a response to an unfavorable
shift in American policy.
There
are plenty of ways for China to retaliate, from breaking off diplomatic
relations if the United States formally recognizes Taiwan to buying
planes from Europe’s Airbus instead of Boeing, to refusing to help curb
North Korea’s nuclear program. There could also be more shows of force
like the Chinese fighter jets
that flew close to Taiwan
late last month. And China could also restrict its investments and
tourism to Taiwan, which would not be good for the island or the region.
It’s
not uncommon for new presidents to put their own stamp on policy, even
longstanding policy. But this requires assembling a staff and conducting
a full review of the impact of any changes. Mr. Trump has few Asia
experts in his circle, and some advisers have urged him to take up a
hard line without any sense of long-term repercussions in the region.
President
Obama tried to manage a more assertive China by pursuing deeper
military cooperation with smaller Asian nations and negotiating the
Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-nation agreement setting higher
standards for trade. Mr. Trump has firmly rejected that deal, with no
interest in renegotiating it. His early moves show only his intent to be
a disrupter, no matter the consequences to American security.
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